Wall Street may be happy. After all profits are up and rising. However, for those of us in the real estate business exactly where are we. The good news is that rates are stuck in low gear and likely to stay there for the next 12 months. The economies resistance to revival remains stubbornly in place.
Demand for oil in the United States remains tepid driven by the weak economy and by a populace determined to waste no more. U.S. savings is running consistently at over 4% and consumers continue to cut their debt, write off their mortgages through foreclosure, and other debt via bankruptcy. The U.S. consumer is saving cash and reducing outstanding liabilities at an unprecedented level.
Corporations are piling up cash in profits. Yet, Hiring is stuck in near neutral. As of this most recent quarter, the U.S. Federal Reserve predicts that this will remain the case as does a majority of economists around the country.
Foreclosure activity is increasing and the inventory of houses on the market is at 8.5 months and likely to continue rising for months to come because of the increasing foreclosure rate. At the same time, since 2004 the number of renters has increased by 3.4 millions and in the past quarter multifamily and rental vacancy has ticked downward in the face of this mostly discouraging news.
Where does this the leave the real estate industry?
Keep in mind that behind all these statistics, the demographics point to sharply increased renting, steady population growth, and the transition of the Echo Boomer from dependents of their baby boom parents to heads of household. And, the credit effects of the downturn and emerging legislative environment will increase rental demand for years if not decades to come.
Investors and those interested in a rental real …
No wonder most people don’t understand economics. Often what may seem good on one side, has bad side effects on the other side. For example, the stock market goes up – people will think that’s good! But that is largely due to rising prices for bad oil news. However, often the price of oil rises because “experts” believe that the economy is improving and therefore more oil will be needed in production – good news! But the increase in oil prices caused the cost of living to rise – bad news. But it helps Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – good news! But that then causes inflation – bad news.
But inflation means the economy is improving – good news! But then the Fed became worried about inflation and raising interest rates – bad news! Which causes the value of the dollar to increase – good news! But that is detrimental to exports because now American products are more expensive abroad – bad news! But that means foreign products are cheaper in the US – good news! But that hurts the competitiveness of American companies – bad news!
If we think that political analysis and political chat are often more hype than others, the same can be said about analyzing economic news! You can easily see why economic news is often confusing. Economic news is often confusing because – what is good for one consumer, might be bad for another – what is good for one company, bad for another – what is good for one sector of the economy – bad for another.
The stock market is often the most confusing. On days when there is “bad news,” the market often goes up, whereas on some days “good news”, the market sometimes goes down! While Dow, or S&P, etc., might …
There are mainly 2 major methods that Forex merchants use to analyze the market. What’s currently happening in Greece could foretell the upcoming. The Greek authorities has been spending and borrowing approach beyond its means for years, is being suffocated by debt, and is all however bankrupt. 25% of the Greek workforce are government staff and many have fats pensions and full retirement advantages: 14% of Greeks are government early retirees (at age 50 for girls and fifty five for males), with the typical retirement age of sixty one. Sadly, too many Greeks have become used to excessive government entitlement programs and since such programs should be downsized to cope with financial actuality, they’re outraged.
See anything familiar? Employment was at it strongest in space 2, right before shares nose-dived. Employment was at its current worst in space 3, right because the market ended the bear market. I highlighted a excessive and low unemployment vary in space 1, only as a result of neither seemed to affect the market during that period. Just like the GDP determine, unemployment knowledge is almost better suited to be a contrarian indicator. There’s one factor price mentioning, although, that is evident with this chart. While the unemployment charges on the ‘excessive’ ends of spectrum was usually a sign of a reversals, there’s a nice correlation between the direction of the unemployment line and the route of the market. The 2 sometimes transfer in opposite instructions, no matter what the current unemployment level is. In that sense, logic has no less than a small function.
With Trump within the White Home and the wealth hole that continues to widen has made the United States irrelevant in world affairs. This irrelevancy is threatening the very fiber of American society. Once we take a look at the …
Insurance and finance are intently interwoven fields of business, not least as a result of they both contain cash. Businesses have a task to play in the transition to a decarbonized financial system and also can profit from embracing the inexperienced financial system. The COP23 Finance Day focused on the climate change impacts and opportunities from a finance perspective. Just keep this in thoughts when the monetary markets are hovering in the upcoming years: When issues look too good to be true, remember that they usually are. Capitalize on the traits, however keep away from excessive risk.
Our view is that there will be non permanent downturns through the subsequent main long-time period upswing within the financial markets, which we imagine will begin as early as late 2010. By late 2011, the U.S. financial markets may have begun a dramatic, lengthy-time period escalation, but of course you will see occasional, now-common, heavy volatility along the way in which.
We imagine that between 2011 and 2016-2018 can be often called the roaring teens period for the monetary markets (particularly the U.S. markets), and thus for the world’s major economies, and that many people will overlook about the truth that booms steadily end in busts, especially when the muse of the restoration is built on unsustainable economic insurance policies.
See anything acquainted? Employment was at it strongest in space 2, proper earlier than stocks nostril-dived. Employment was at its latest worst in area 3, proper as the market ended the bear market. I highlighted a high and low unemployment range in space 1, solely as a result of neither seemed to affect the market throughout that period. Like the GDP figure, unemployment data is almost higher suited to be a contrarian indicator. There may be one thing worth mentioning, though, that is …
Everybody needs finance to reside happily. If you find yourself asking from 2011 via 2015 if a particular monetary markets’ correction is the culminating collapse that will lastly lead to feasible authorities policies (unlike the current ones) being put into motion, it will not be. You may know when the concluding crash happens and you will not should ask. It will likely be that huge.
What’s at the moment happening in Greece could foretell the upcoming. The Greek authorities has been spending and borrowing approach beyond its means for years, is being suffocated by debt, and is all but bankrupt. 25% of the Greek workforce are government workers and plenty of have fat pensions and full retirement benefits: 14% of Greeks are government early retirees (at age 50 for girls and 55 for men), with the typical retirement age of 61. Sadly, too many Greeks have become used to extreme government entitlement programs and since such programs need to be downsized to take care of financial actuality, they’re outraged.
An apart, from our perspective it’s much, much simpler to assess monetary prospects of people versus monetary markets, company entities, total economies, and so on.; during economic calamities some individuals fare worse than others, and the diploma is mirrored within the patterns of their distinctive complete charts together with the checks and balances of our methods of analysis. The crimson-flagged time-frame of 2016-2018 has appeared again and again in so many charts that now we have to deliver it to your attention.
The chart under plots a month-to-month S&P 500 in opposition to a quarterly Gross Domestic Product development figure. Take into account that we’re evaluating apples to oranges, at least to a small degree. The S&P index ought to generally go greater, whereas the GDP percentage growth fee ought to …